White Paper

Using Consumer Confidence to Track a Recession During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic has brought about unprecedented economic conditions in the U.S., with most nonessential economic activity shut down.

To interpret the recent economic downturn, we looked into the theoretical relationship between consumer confidence and the historical economic recession trends to assess how likely we are headed towards the recession. Coupled with the unique characteristics of the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on consumer spending habits, Morning Consult's report provides an in depth analysis on where the U.S. economy is headed. Download the full white paper below.

MC-Consumer-Confidence-2018-2020-major event.png

Highlights from Our Report:
  • As the coronavirus spreads throughout the U.S. and non-essential businesses are shutdown, American consumers have rapidly grown less confident in the U.S. economy.
  • The increased importance of consumer spending to the U.S. economy increases the likely drop in consumer confidence associated with a recession.
  • Consumer confidence has fallen by 36% on average over the past five recessions, going back to 1980.
  • If policymakers are unable to mitigate the spillover effects of the economic shutdown, confidence could fall further to 56%, which corresponds to the decrease felt during the Great Recession.

Get the Full Report

Recession-White-Paper-3D-Opened-web-reduced padding.png